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2024-12-14 12:38:56

Luo Zhiheng, Yuekai Securities: It is expected that the monetary policy will be further strengthened in 2025, or the RRR will be lowered or the interest rate will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points respectively. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Yuekai Securities, believes that overall, the tone of the meeting is more positive, and positive signals are released in terms of work objectives, policy tone and task deployment next year, which is conducive to strengthening and consolidating the momentum of sustained economic recovery next year. It is still a high probability that China's economy will achieve a growth rate of around 5% next year, as long as we implement greater fiscal and monetary policies, ensure that the policies work in the same direction, and promote a series of institutional reforms that restrict development. Luo Zhiheng predicts that in 2025, the monetary policy will be further strengthened, and the RRR and interest rate will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points respectively throughout the year; Rhythm or more advanced. In addition, the monetary policy toolbox will be further enriched and improved. On the one hand, it will adjust and optimize the policy tools such as refinancing of affordable housing, "convenient exchange of securities, funds and insurance companies" and stock repurchase and refinancing, which will be implemented and achieved practical results; On the other hand, we may appropriately narrow the width of the interest rate corridor and guide the money market interest rate to run smoothly around the policy interest rate center.The list of members of the Sixth Executive Council of the Macao Special Administrative Region was announced. According to the relevant provisions of the Basic Law of the Macao Special Administrative Region, the sixth Chief Executive of the Macao Special Administrative Region has completed the preparatory work for the members of the Sixth Executive Council of the Macao Special Administrative Region. Eleven people have accepted the invitation to serve as members of the Executive Council: Zhang Yongchun, Ou Anli, Chen Zewu, Ma Zhiyi, Chen Jialiang, Ye Zhaojia, Liu Yiliang, Liang Weifeng, Song Biqi, Tang Jizong and Yu Chengbin. The relevant executive order will be announced on December 20, and 11 members of the Executive Council will be sworn in on the same day. The Executive Council is an organization that assists the Chief Executive in making decisions. The sixth Chief Executive, Cen Haohui, is convinced that all the appointed members can support and implement the Basic Law of the Macao Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China, be loyal to the People's Republic of China (PRC) Special Administrative Region, be devoted to their duties, be honest and perform their duties, safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests, accurately implement the principle of "one country, two systems" and ensure the stability and far-reaching implementation of "one country, two systems" in Macao.Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.


Market News: Indonesia's central bank has made triple intervention to maintain market confidence in the Indonesian rupiah.According to sources, Trump will meet with the widow of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Sunday.According to CITIC Securities, it is necessary for deficit ratio to rise to nearly 4%, and mortgage interest rates is expected to fall further. According to Yicai, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 11th and 12th. Regarding what it means to change the tone of fiscal policy from "positive" to "more positive", the chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said that I think it means that the whole fiscal policy will be further expanded next year. First of all, from the perspective of deficit ratio, our deficit ratio is 3% this year and 3% at the beginning of last year. However, we had a special budget adjustment at the end of last year, so the deficit ratio from the end of last year to the end of last year was actually 3.8%. Looking forward to next year, we think that the ratio that may be close to 4% should be the effect that everyone expects to achieve at present. In terms of monetary policy, we can see a series of monetary policies, including further relaxing some restrictions on purchase restriction and loan restriction, including the down payment ratio, and a particularly important one is to reduce the mortgage interest rates. I think these monetary policies will be further promoted in the future, and even further declined in mortgage interest rates, for example.


According to CITIC Securities, it is necessary for deficit ratio to rise to nearly 4%, and mortgage interest rates is expected to fall further. According to Yicai, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 11th and 12th. Regarding what it means to change the tone of fiscal policy from "positive" to "more positive", the chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said that I think it means that the whole fiscal policy will be further expanded next year. First of all, from the perspective of deficit ratio, our deficit ratio is 3% this year and 3% at the beginning of last year. However, we had a special budget adjustment at the end of last year, so the deficit ratio from the end of last year to the end of last year was actually 3.8%. Looking forward to next year, we think that the ratio that may be close to 4% should be the effect that everyone expects to achieve at present. In terms of monetary policy, we can see a series of monetary policies, including further relaxing some restrictions on purchase restriction and loan restriction, including the down payment ratio, and a particularly important one is to reduce the mortgage interest rates. I think these monetary policies will be further promoted in the future, and even further declined in mortgage interest rates, for example.India's NIFTY index metal plate fell by 1.3%.Huayi Brothers Dianji Animation Film Co., Ltd. is operating abnormally. Tianyancha App shows that recently, Huayi Brothers Dianji Animation Film Co., Ltd. was listed in the list of abnormal operations by Shanghai Xuhui District Market Supervision Administration because it could not be contacted through the registered residence or business premises. Huayi Brothers Touching Animation Film Co., Ltd. was established in March 2016. Its legal representative is Wang Zhonglei, with a registered capital of 200 million yuan. Its business scope includes film distribution, film screening, film production, production of audio-visual products and electronic publications, etc. It is wholly owned by Huayi Brothers.

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